究竟是什么推动了我国经济增长方式转变?

What Exactly Promotes the Transformation of China's Economic Growth Pattern?

通过采用改进的STR模型对我国经济增长率序列进行拟合后发现,新中国成立以来我国经济增长方式发生显著变化,但要素投入是我国经济增长的主要来源,体现了我国经济增长的粗放型特征;除资本以外,其余生产要素的边际产量都呈上升趋势,表明我国要素配置效率得到持续提升;资本边际产量一直呈下降趋势,说明我国经济增长长期依靠投资拉动,从而导致投资过度;改革开放和市场化改革显著增强我国经济增长的可持续性。此外,对推动我国经济增长方式转变的内在动因进行分析,据此提出相关政策建议。

We fit the time series of China＇s economy growth with a modified STR model, which eventually generates a perfect performance. Based on such mod- el, several findings have been revealed： there have been significant changes in the pattern of China＇s economic growth since 1953, which has mainly been promoted by the increasing input of production factors; every production factor except capital has generated increasing marginal product, which indicates continuous efficiency improvement in the allocation of production factors; the diminishing marginal prod- uct of capital implies the excessive use of capital; the opening-up reform and market-oriented reform have enhanced the sustainability of China＇s economic growth. This paper reveals some underlying factors which are inferred to have driven China＇s economic growth pattern transformation and made some relevant suggestions.