中德双边贸易中本地市场效应研究

A Study of the Home Market Effect in Sino-Germany Bilateral Trade

通过采用1993—2012年的贸易数据,借鉴Schumacher(2003)提出的贸易引力模型,对中国和德国双边贸易中的本地市场效应进行了实证分析。检验结果显示,在SITC一位数10类产品中有5类存在本地市场效应,而SITC两位数35类工业制造业产品中有16类产品存在本地市场效应。随着中德双边贸易的不断发展,本地市场效应已成为影响中德双边贸易模式的重要因素之一。因此,中国政府应当努力培育健全的国内消费市场,加快完善社会保障制度,发挥好本地市场效应对中国对外贸易稳定持续发展的推动作用。

This paper examines the presence of the home market effect in Sino-Germany bilateral trade by utili-zing the gravity model framework proposed by Schumacher （2003）to evaluate longitudinal UN trade data from 1993 to 2012.The empirical results demonstrate that the home market effect has become one of the key determinants of the Sino -Germany bilateral trade pattern.Out of ten single -digit Standard International Trade Classification （SITC）categories,the local market effect was observed in five product categories.Out of the thirty-five two-digit SITC subcategories,the same effect was present in 16 instances.Given the prevalence of the home market effect,Chinese government should pay attention to the maturation of the domestic consumption market,improve the social security system,and to promote the development of international trade.