塔里木河流域干旱风险评估与区划

The Risk Evaluation and Division of the Tarim River Basin

选取不同尺度的标准化降水指数为危险度指标和9个干旱易损度指标建立塔河流域的干旱风险评估模型,并分析了塔河流域干旱危险度、干旱易损性及干旱风险度的空间变化特征,研究结果表明:1)塔河流域北部和西部地区的SPI3的干旱危险度高,南部和东部地区干旱危险度低;塔河流域中部和西北部地区SPI12的干旱危险度高。塔河流域西北部和西南部地区的干旱易损度高于其他地区,其中西南部地区的干旱易损度最高。农业人口比重、总抚养比和因旱农业经济损失占GDP比重与干旱易损度的相关性最高。2)塔河流域中部地区和西部地区的女性与男性比、人口密度、文盲率、抚养比、农业人口比重、灌溉面积比重大于其他地区;中部地区和西部地区的粮食产量低于塔河流域其他地区。3)塔河流域西部的干旱风险等级是最高的,其次塔河南部和西北部地区的干旱风险等级较高,东北地区和东南地区的县市的干旱风险度较低。

A multi-index drought risk assessment model was developed to combine the strengths of stand- ard precipitation index at different time steps for drought hazard index and composite drought vulnerability indices in the Tarim River Basin （TRB）. The spatial-temporal patterns of drought hazard, drought vul- nerability and drought risk are analyzed. The results indicate that ： （ 1 ） Drought hazard is higher in north- ern and eastern TRB than other areas at 3 month step. It is high in central and northwestern parts at a 12- month time scale. Drought vulnerability index in northwestern and southwestern TRB is higher than other areas. Moreover, drought vulnerability is the highest in southwestern TRB. The correlation coefficients between drought vulnerability index and percentage of agricultural population, dependency ratio, percent- age of agricultural economic loss are higher than other drought vulnerability indices. （2） The vulnerabili- ty indices including F, P, I, D, A and I in middle and western TRB are higher than indices in eastern and northern TRB, while F is opposite. （3） Droughts pose the highest risk to the western districts of theTRB, while drought risk is the lowest in northeastern and southeastern TRB.