农产品对外贸易与湖北省农业经济增长的关系

The Relationship Between Agricultural Foreign Trade and the Growth of Hubei Agricultural Economy

以湖北省1981-2008年的相关数据为样本,运用统计分析与计量分析方法,研究农产品进出口贸易与农业经济增长的关系。结果表明,农产品出口对于湖北省农业经济增长具有显著的促进作用,但经济增长不能带动出口的增加,二者呈单向因果关系;农产品进口对于湖北省农业经济增长具有一定的抑制作用,而湖北省农业经济增长却带动了农产品进口的增加,二者也呈单向因果关系;从长期来看,湖北省农业生产总值与农产品出口、进口存在协整关系,即三者存在着长期的稳定关系,三者步调基本一致。

Based on the Hubei＇s data from 1981 to 2008, the statistical and econometric methods were used to empirically analyze the relationship between foreign trade of agricultural products and agricultural economic growth. The results showed that Hubei＇s agricultural products export could improve agricultural economy significantly. The economic growth could not lead the increase of export. There was a kind of one-way causal relationship. The import of agricultural products had an inhibitory effect on the agricultural economic growth. Agricultural economic growth could lead the increase of import of agricultural products with a kind of one-way causal relationship. In the long run, there is a co-integration relationship between gross agricultural production, export and import of agricultural product. There is a long-term stable and consistant relationship among them.