全国农村与城镇居民人均收入的协整分析

China Rural Residents and Urban Residents' Per Capita Income on Cointegration Analysis

中国农村居民人均收入和城镇居民人均收入的关系,反映了中国乡镇经济的基本特征。运用协整分析方法和误差修正模型理论,对1978—2010年全国农村居民人均收入和城镇居民人均收入的年度数据进行实证分析,分析结果表明,中国农村居民人均收入和城镇居民人均收入之间存在着一个长期稳定的均衡关系,并且建立协整模型和误差修正模型,采用Granger因果检验,得出城镇居民人均收入是农村居民人均收入的原因,并从研究结论中提出针对性的建议。

The relationship between rural residents and urban residents＇ per capita income reflects the basic characteristics of China＇s Rural Economy, This article selects 1978-2010 China rural residents and urban residents＇ per capita income date for using eointegratiun analysis method and error correction model, the result showed that the China rural residents and urban residents＇ per capita income was in a equilibrium relationship in long-term, Used Granger causality test, the result showed that China urban residents＇ per capita income was the Granger cause of China rural residents＇ per capita income.Suggestions are given accordingly based on the research result.