我国存款准备金率对利率及CPI传导效应研究

Research on the Effect of China's Bank Reserve Requirement Ratio on Interest Rate and CPI Transmission

综合运用经济学、统计学知识,用协整、回归与时间序列组合模型、递归模型等计量方法,从存款准备金率的传导机制出发,研究存款准备金率是如何影响利率,利率又是如何影响CPI,这条路径上进行分析,力图建立一个递归联立模型,分析三者之间的传导效应关系;结果表明:存款准备金率的调整对于CPI的影响有一定的时滞,并且两者呈正相关关系。

This paper studies the path of how bank reserve requirement ratio affects interest rate and how the interest rate affects CPI from the transmission mechanism of bank reserve requirement ratio based on the calculation methods such as the knowledge of economics and statistics,cointegration,regression,time series combination model, recursive model and so on and tries to set up a recursive simultaneous model to analyze the transmission effect relation among the three,and the results show that the influence of the adjustment of bank reserve requirement ratio on CPI has certain delay and that there is a positive relation between the two.