介质浓度波动对承压设备动态风险评估影响研究

Research on the Effects of Medium Concentration Fluctuation on Dynamic Risk Assessment of Pressure Equipment

承压设备由于其特殊性,一旦发生事故,对经济、环境等会带来严重的后果。在役的承压设备,受加工处理原料、操作工艺条件变化的影响,其风险具有显著的动态属性。从新的角度,提出动态风险评估的理念,建立风险评估模型,探索性地研究介质浓度波动因素对承压设备风险评估的影响。基于RBI技术,针对减薄技术模块,尝试用泰勒级数法把浓度的影响加入失效概率中,具有一定的理论意义及实际工程指导价值。

Because of its specificity, pressure equipment will bring serious consequences to the economic and environment once an accident happens. The risk of pressurized equipment in service has remarkable dynamic properties due to the change of raw materials and operation condition. In this paper, a new concept of dynamic risk assessment is put forward from a new view and a new risk assessment model focused on concentration fluctuation to dynamic risk is established. Based on RBI technology, the Taylor series method is used to study the effects of the concentration on failure probability in view of the thinning technical module, which has certain theoretical significance and practical guidance value.