一种用于装备维修器材消耗预测的灰色残差修正模型

Grey Prediction Model with Residual Error Correction for Equipment Maintenance Apparatus Consumption Prediction

装备维修器材的使用管理过程中常受多方面因素影响,致使器材消耗量数据离散程度较大,现有的灰色预测方法难以有效处理。为此,提出了一种灰色-马尔柯夫残差修正器材消耗模型,通过消除传统方法对残差信息的掩盖性来获得更精准的预测结果。将该模型应用于某型舰船的某种维修器材消耗量预测,预测精度有了较明显提高,并较真实地反映了维修器材的消耗规律。

Quantities of equipment maintenance apparatus are often affected by various factors during their utilizing and management processes. Thus the apparatus consumption quantities are often with heavy dif- fuseness, which cannot be dealt successfully with existing grey prediction models. A grey-Markov residual error correction model is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy by eliminating the ignoring of residual values in the traditional method. A certain apparatus consumption quantity for some vessel maintenance prediction problem validate our methods with more accurate prediction results. And the consumption law of the maintenance apparatus realistically is recovered too.