资本账户开放路径与经济波动——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的福利分析

Capital Account Liberalization Path and Economic Fluctuation:Based on the Analysis of the Welfare of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

如何进一步开放资本账户是中国改革开放新阶段面临的重大问题。本文基于动态随机一般均衡模型的理论框架,构建中国资本账户开放的福利评价标准,实证模拟了资本账户不同开放路径所引发的宏观经济效应。研究发现,外商直接投资过度开放、对外证券投资严厉管制的策略有其时代局限性,甚至可能掉入经济"低增长、高波动"的极端陷阱。本文主张管理直接投资的效率和结构、逐步放松中国对外证券投资管制。

How to further liberalize RMB capital account is one of the trickiest issues for the new stage of reform and opening up process in China. Based on theoretical framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium mod- el, this paper constructed a welfare evaluation criterion of China＇s capital account liberalization and then carried out numerical simulations and comparisons of macroeconomic effect among different liberalization strategies. It if found that over open to FDI while harsh control against outward security investment has its historical limitations, which may lead to the extreme trap of low economic growth but high volatility. For the sake of stable economic growth, this paper stands for supervising FDI efficiency and orientation, prompting outward security investment openness.