西部地区省域城市化动力机制研究

Research of Provincial Urbanization Dynamic Mechanism in the Western Region of China

基于西部地区12个省域2000-2011年城市化相关数据,通过空间计量经济学方法对西部地区省域城市化动力机制进行了分析。空间相关性检验结果显示,西部地区省域间城市化存在显著的空间相关性,有着空间集聚的趋势,利用传统OLS模型进行解释会造成空间因素的遗漏,空间计量模型更为适用,进一步利用空间杜宾模型对西部地区省域城市化进程中动力因素的空间交互效应进行验证,并在此基础上对其空间效应进行分解,结果显示:西部地区省域产业结构转变对其城市化的正向直接效应最强,但是省域间存在较强的产业竞争,周边省域产业结构转变会对省域城市化产生明显的负向间接效应;经济发展水平的提高对省域城市化的直接效应显著,同时由于西部地区省域间经济发展水平差异不明显,周边省域经济发展水平对省域城市化的负向间接效应并不显著;城市用地规模扩张对省域城市化的正向直接效应仅次于产业结构转变,而且这种城市化推动行为在省域间效仿度较高,导致其对省域城市化的正向间接效应最强;基础设施投入对省域城市化也具有显著的正向直接效应,省域间基础设施投入虽存在效仿行为,但是财政水平较低导致其对省域城市化的正向间接效应并不显著;由于区位劣势,对外开放程度对西部地区省域城市化的正向直接效应不显著,但是周边省域对外开放程度的增强却一定程度上导致省域自身经济要素外溢,对省域城市化产生了显著的负向间接效应。因此,在未来西部地区省域城市化进程中不仅要关注省域自身城市化动力因素,还应注意省域间的城市化动力因素的协调。

Based on the urbanization data of 12 provinces in the western region from 2000 to 2011, provincial urbanization dynamic factors in the western region are analyzed through spatial econometrics methods. According to the results of the spatial correlation test, there is a spatial correlation in the western region provincial urbanization, and there is a spatial agglomeration trend. Therefore, using the traditional OLS model will miss the space factors, and spatial econometric model is more suitable. Spatial interaction effect of provincial urbanization in the western region is verified by spatial durbin model; on the basis, the spatial effects are decomposed. The results show that the transformation of industrial structure in western provinces has the most positive direct effects to provincial urbanization, and due to the industrial competition between provinces, transformation of industrial structure in neighboring provinces has negative indirect effects to provincial urbanization; level of economic development in western provinces has significant positive direct effects to provincial urbanization, but due to the gap of economic development between western provinces is small, and the indirect effects of economic development in neighboring provinces to provincial urbanization is not significant;the positive direct effects of urban land scale expansion to provincial urbanization are the second only to transformation of industrial structure, and due to the imitation between western provinces, it is has the most positive indirect effects to provincial urbanization; infrastructure investment of western provinces has significant positive direct effects to provincial urbanization, but subject to the low level of provincial fiscal revenue, the indirect effects of infrastructure investment between western provinces are not significant; because of the disadvantage of location, the direct effects of opening-up degree to provincial urbanization is not significant, but the enhancement of opening-up degree in neighboring provinces will cause the provincial economic element spillover,it is has significant negative direct effects. Therefore, in the process of provincial urbanization in the western region, decision makers shouldn＇ t only enhance provincial own motivation factors, should also coordinate the urbanization motivation factors between provinces.