上海家庭出行碳排放基本特征、空间模式及影响因素研究

Study on Basic Characteristics,Spatial Pattern and Influence Factors of Shanghai Family Commuting Carbon Emission

伴随着人口、私家车等不断增长,中国大城市家庭出行碳排放在逐年增长,因此,如何降低出行碳排放成为低碳城市建设一项重要议题。本论文利用1 054份上海家庭碳排放的问卷调查结果,结合上海人口普查、经济普查等相关经济社会数据,分析了上海家庭出行的行为模式、家庭碳排放的基本特征、空间模式和影响因素等相关问题。研究发现,上海家庭出行模式呈现居住区位、住房类型和收入水平等差异。上海家庭通勤时间和通勤距离呈现倒"U"型曲线,即从市中心向外,呈现由低到高再低的格局。上海家庭出行碳排放呈现出类似出行模式的倒"U"型曲线,中心城区和远郊区为低碳区,高碳区呈环状分布于近郊区。家庭出行碳排放呈现高值聚集现象。家庭出行碳排放冷点区域十分显著,呈环状出现在中环线附近;热点区域主要位于浦东新区,同时嘉定安亭片区出现几个零散的热点。从计量模型中可知,上海市家庭出行碳排放的主要影响因素是是否有汽车和住房的形式。调查显示,等车时间过长、换乘不方便、速度太慢、拥挤、价格不合理和车站距离太远是不少居民不选择公共交通出行的原因。当前,上海居住开始郊区化,但就业、医疗、教育等资源仍然集中于中心城区,造成了资源配置与居住空间的不匹配,形成了高的出行时间和距离以及出行的高碳排放。未来上海市应重点疏解核心、边缘城区优质教育、医疗资源,在新城高标准配置优质公共资源,形成多中心、多节点的空间模式;应鼓励发展城市公共交通、快速轨道交通等低碳交通体系;在完善市内轨道交通的同时,应加大中心城区轨道交通向郊区延伸;应加强地铁站点与公共汽车的顺畅换乘,等等。

With the explosion of urban population and private cars, family commuting carbon emission increases year by year in Chinese large cities. Therefore, how to reduce travel carbon emission becomes an important topic of low-carbon urban construction. Based on 1054 questionnaires data on Shanghai households carbon emissions and Shanghai population and economic census data, the present study analyzes the basic characteristics, spatial pattern and influence factors of Shanghai family commuting carbon emission. It indicates that Shanghai family commuting pattern shows differences in residential location, housing types and income levels. Shanghai family commuting pattern appears to be inverted U-shaped curve in timing and distance, forming a low-high-low pattern from inner city to outer suburbs. The family commuting carbon emissions pattern shows a similar curve from inner city to outer suburbs. The inner city and outer suburbs are low-carbon emission area, and the inner suburban ring is high-carbon emission area. The high-carbon emission area is spatially agglomerated. The cold point area of carbon emission is very clear and forms a ring belt around the urban middle circle road. The hot point area of carbon emission mainly distributes in Pudong New District, and few hot points disperse in Anting of Jiading District. Statistical models indicate that the dominant influence factors are car owner status and housing types. The questionnaires data shows that reasons for residents not choosing public transit include too long waiting time, inconvenient transferring, too low speed, crowding and unreasonable pricing, and too long distance between stops. Currently residential suburbanization develops quickly, and at the same time public resources, including occupations, medicals and educations, still concentrate in inner cities, which makes spatial mismatch between public resources and residential habitats, thus bringing about long time and distance commuting and high-carbon emissions. In the future it is imperative for Shanghai to change public resource distribution patterns, to set high standard for new suburban towns and form multi-centered spatial pattern, to encourage developing low-carbon urban transport systems such as public traffic and quick rail transport extending to suburbs, and to facilitate the transferring between metro and bus.