基于Bass模型的产品功能疲劳预测

Predicting Feature Fatigue Based on the Bass Model

为在产品开发阶段定量预测产品功能疲劳,提出了基于Bass模型的预测方法。首先分析了产品功能疲劳与企业客户资产的关系;其次将产品功能疲劳与Bass模型结合,通过研究产品功能疲劳特性以及顾客状态转移以确定模型参数并构建模型,从而预测产品功能疲劳影响下的产品扩散过程以及企业客户资产,通过相应的客户资产分析产品的功能疲劳;最后给出一个案例并进行了分析。

To predict the effects of feature fatigue on customer equity quantitatively in the feature decision making stage of product development, a method based on Bass Model is proposed. First, the relationship between product feature fatigue （FF） and customer equity （CE） is discussed. Then,based on the comprehensive analysis of FF, customer transition and Bass Model, the parameters of the model are ascertained to rebuild Bass Model. Thus the product diffusion process and the corresponding CE, which can evaluate product feature fatigue, are obtained in consideration of FF. Finally,a case study is presented and the conclusion is also given.