比较优势战略选择对新疆经济发展的影响分析

Analysis on Effect of Strategic Choices Based on Comparative Advantage to Economic Development in Xinjiang

以技术选择指数(TCI)作为地区比较优势战略选择指标,同时选取产业结构、对外贸易、人均地区生产总值作为地区经济发展的三大衡量指标。以1990—2012年新疆相关数据为样本,通过协整分析、VAR方差分解,研究新疆以往的发展战略选择对产业结构、地区经济增长和对外贸易的影响。综合实证结果表明,新疆违背比较优势的发展战略对产业结构、对外贸易、人均地区生产总值产生了负向影响。这种发展方式导致产业结构偏离优化状态,升级缓慢,出口结构与产品结构错位,对外贸易这一比较优势对经济拉动作用不明显,因此转变发展方式,改善要素禀赋结构是未来新疆经济发展的重点。

The paper chooses TCI as a regional development strategy selected indicators, and selects industrial upgra- ding, foreign trade, and economic development level as the core of the development of Xinjiang macroeconomic variables. Based on the relevant data of Xinjiang 1990 -2012, through cointegration regression analysis, variance decomposition relevant empirical analysis, the paper analyzes the relationship between Xinjiang development strategies, industry structure, and market openness. Study found that Xinjiang has implemented a development strategy against cooperative advantage, which had a negative effect on economic development, industrial upgrading, as well as foreign trade. Upgra- ding of industrial structure on economic development role in promoting more obvious economic trade is not obvious, TCI representative of the development strategy for industrial upgrading an role in promoting foreign d economic development and the negative impact of foreign trade significantly. This kind of Xinjiang strategy led to serious deviation from the optimal state of industrial structure, and slow development of industrial upgrading, product structure and regional structure of exports relative misalignment causes. It is necessary for Xinjiang economic development to transform its development mode, improve structure of factor endowment in the future.