基于WEBGIS和四库一体技术的三峡库区滑坡灾害预测预报系统研究

LANDSLIDE HAZARD PREDICTING SYSTEM BASED ON WEBGIS AND INTEGRATED DATABASES IN THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA

在三峡库区开展的地质灾害稳定性评价、危险性区划、风险分析以及滑坡灾害预测预报所获成果的基础上,利用三期灾害地质图编绘、专业监测中崩塌滑坡预报模型和预报判据等资料,根据气象、库水位变化、人类工程活动、滑坡监测等信息,开发基于WEBGIS和四库一体技术的滑坡灾害预测预报系统。该系统主要包括区域滑坡灾害危险性评价、单体滑坡灾害时间预报、滑坡涌浪计算、灾情评估以及信息实时发布等功能模块,集成20多种适应于库区地质环境规律和滑坡灾害发育特点的模型;四库一体模式(模型库、方法库、数据仓库、知识库)即以模型为主导,调用方法,提取数据,模型求解,最后将专家决策结果作为知识源存入知识库。该系统在示范区巴东新城区和典型滑坡八字门和白水河滑坡上进行试运行,取得较好的应用成果,该系统的设计与实现为库区地质灾害预警决策和应急指挥提供技术支持,为库区人民生命和财产安全提供强有力的保障。

A hazard forecasting system of landslide was developed using WEBGIS and an integrated technique of four databases on the basis of the previous research results in aspects of geological hazard stability,hazardous zonation,risk evaluation and landslide prediction of in the area of Three Gorges Reservoir. The data utilized in the system including the compiled geological maps,the landslide prediction models and the forecasting criterion in professional monitoring,the weather,the fluctuation of the water level in the reservoir,the human activities and the monitored results of landslides. The system has a main function module including the hazard assessment of regional landslide,the temporal forecasting of the individual landslide,the calculation of the landslide surge, and the real time information release. It integrated more than twenty models describing the landslide development of the geological environment in the area of the reservoir. The four databases integrated include a model base,a method base,a data warehouse and a knowledge base. The governing model base calls the method base to extract data from the warehouse base, solves the problems designated and finally deposits the expert’s decision as the source of knowledge in the knowledge base. Good results were achieved in the trial runs of the system in the cases of New Badong County,Bazimen landslide and Baishuihe landslide.