基于改进灰色模型的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测

Predictive of Mine Gas Inflow Based on Improved Grey Model

为了对矿井深部瓦斯涌出量进行预测,介绍了灰色线性回归组合模型的建模方法,以某煤矿相对瓦斯涌出量统计数据为实例,利用灰色线性回归组合模型对其瓦斯涌出量进行预测,通过检验得出模型的精度等级为一级。结果表明:灰色线性回归组合模型可以使传统的灰色GM(1,1)模型不含线性因素的情形得到改善,在预测矿井深部瓦斯涌出量中取得了良好的预测效果,具有一定的实用价值。

In order to predict the amount of gas emission in deep mine,the modeling method of gray combination of linear regression model is introduced.Taking the gas emission quantity statistics in a coal mine as an example,use the gray combination of linear regression model to predict the trend of the gas emission quantity.After testing,the accuracy of the mode is first rank.The results produced show that gray combination of linear regression model can make up for the lack of non-liner factors in the gray GM（1,1） model,and achieves a good result for the prediction of gas emission in deep mine,the model is practical.