俄罗斯人口发展状况及对中国的启示

Russia's Population Development and Revelation to China

本文利用俄罗斯的历史人口数据,对俄罗斯人口数量和结构变动状况进行了分析,并对俄罗斯三次人口转型中的社会经济情况变化对人口变动状况的影响进行了分析。结果表明,俄罗斯的人口出生率下降很快,人口死亡率升高,总和生育率已远低于替代水平,因此人口自然增长率迅速下降,总人口数长期处于下降通道,出生预期寿命不增反降,特别是男性出生预期寿命远低于女性出生预期寿命。在推动人口增长的社会经济相关措施实施后,俄罗斯人口数量仍不能增加,这对目前总和生育率已经很低的中国有一定的借鉴意义。

Using the population data of the Russian＇s history,this paper analyzed Russia＇s population quantity and structure changes, and the social economic conditions changes during the Russian＇s three times population transformation. The results show that the total fertility rate of Russia has far below replacement level, declining birth rates soon, higher rates of mortality rate, so the natural population growth rate fell rapidly, the total population falling channel is difficult to restore, life ex- pectancy at birth does not increase, especially male life expectancy at birth. Russia＇s population still cannot increase under the pushing of social and economic measures and this have certain significance for the China which its total fertility rate was very low China.