区域粮食安全视角下的流出地、流入地农村流动人口与粮食产量的实证分析——以安徽和上海为例

Empirical Analysis of Grain Production and Rural Floating Population from Outflow and Inflow Under the Aspect of Regional Grain Security——A Case Study of Anhui Province and Shanghai City

为了了解农村流动人口与区域粮食产量之间的关系,维护区域粮食安全,采用实证分析方法,研究安徽省和上海市的粮食年产量与农村流动人口的关系。结果表明,农村流动人口流出的增加不会导致区域粮食产量的减少,农村流动人口流入的增加则不会导致区域粮食产量的增加,即农村流动人口的流动与区域粮食产量二者之间存在着反向变动关系。从总体来说,农村流动人口的流动能够促进区域粮食增产。为了维护区域粮食安全,从流出地与流入地两个角度,分别提出了引导农村流动人口流动和实现区域粮食增产的具体建议。

In order to realize the relationship between the rural floating population and the regional grain production, and protect the regional grain security, the article uses the empirical analysis method to study the grain production and the rural floating population in Anhui province and Shanghai City. The results showed that, the increase of the rural floating population outflow did not lead to regional food production to reduce, and the increase of the rural floating population inflows would not lead to regional food production increases. It meant that there was a reverse variation relationship between the rural floating population and regional grain production. On the whole, the flow of the rural floating population, can promote regional grain production. In order to protect the regional grain security, according to two conditions of rural floating population outflow and inflow, some advises are proposed separately to lead rural floating population and achieve the increase of regional grain production.