城乡人口流动的影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factor of Urban-rural Population Migration

由巨大的城乡收入差距引起的中国新时期大规模人口流动,正在影响中国传统城乡关系的改变.利用1996～2011年数据,构建中国城乡人口流动、城乡收入差距、家庭现金负担、城乡人均固定资产投资比值等4个变量的协整方程,结果表明,城乡居民收入差异是城乡间巨大流动人口的主要影响因素,农户现金支出负担是次要影响因素,近年来对农村地区增加的固定资产投资所期望的减缓城乡间人口流动的效果尚未显现.并通过脉冲响应分析了短期波动对人口流动的影响,最后提出了改善城乡关系的对策.

Because of the huge income gap between urban and rural areas, the large population movements are affecting Chinese traditional urban--rural relations. Using data from 1996 to 2011, the paper build co--integration equation among Chinese urban--rural population migration, urban--rural income gap, the family cash burden and urban--rural fixed in- vestment. The results show that the urban--rural income differences are the main factors of huge population migration and the farmers＂ cash burden is the secondary. The expected effects of increased fixed investment in rural areas in recent year have not yet appeared. It gives the proposal of improving the urban--rural relationship.