某市甲型肝炎发病预测研究

Study of forecasting in the incidence of hepatitis A in some city

目的：对某市甲型肝炎的发病做短期预测，为其防治工作提供科学依据。方法采用ARMA模型和季节周期回归模型在2007-2012年甲肝发病资料的基础上，对2013年发病情况进行预测。结果某市2013年甲型肝炎年发病率预测值为33．501（1/1000万），第一季度为25．26，第二季度为3．28，第三季度为2．233，第四季度为2．233。结论季节周期回归模型对甲型肝炎各季度发病率的预测效果较好；相关卫生部门应有针对性地做好准备工作，未雨绸缪，降低甲型肝炎的发病水平。

Objective To forecast the incidence of hepatitis A, so as to provide the controlling strategies of the disease in the future.Methods The model of Auto Regression Moving Average （ ARMA） and Seasonal Cycle Regression Model were used to forecast the incidence of hepatitis A in 2013 , based on the data from 2007 to 2012 .Results The annual incidence of hepatitis A was expected to be 33.50/million, with the incidence of the first quarter 25.26/million, the second 3.28/million, the third 2.233/million, the last 2.233/million.Conclusion It is feasible to use the Seasonal Cycle Regression Model to fore-cast the incidence of hepatitis A.Programs must be well prepared in spring, so as to control the outbreak of the disease.