常熟市居民结直肠癌发病与死亡趋势分析

Analysis on trends of incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer among residents in Changshu City

目的了解常熟市居民结直肠癌发病和死亡状况及其变化趋势,为制定结直肠癌防治策略提供依据。方法利用常熟市疾控中心收集到的结直肠癌发病和死亡资料,计算常熟市居民结直肠癌的发病率、死亡率、截缩率、累计率和减寿率,运用线性回归法和对数曲线拟合法(Logarithmic模型)对常熟市居民结直肠癌发病与死亡长期观察数据进行趋势分析。结果 2004—2010年常熟市居民结直肠癌粗发病率和标化发病率均呈上升趋势(P<0.05),且男性发病率高于女性(P<0.05)。在结直肠癌发病的部位构成中,以结肠癌和直肠癌为主,占97.46%。1973—2012年常熟市居民结直肠癌粗死亡率变化不稳定,但标化死亡率、截缩率、累积率、减寿率和标化减寿率均呈稳定的下降趋势,分别下降了57.75%、71.14%、69.86%、58.21%、60.00%和79.04%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论常熟市结直肠癌发病状况形势严峻,应继续加强恶性肿瘤监测和综合防治工作,以降低居民的结直肠癌发病率。

[Objective]To understand the status of incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer among residents in Changshu City, analyze its trends,and provide scientific evidence for developing the prevention and control strategies of colorectal cancer. [Methods]The data of incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer were obtained from Changshu CDC,to analyze the incidence, mortality,truncate adjusted incidence rate,cumulative rate and PYLL rate of colorectal cancer among residents in Changshu City. The trends of incidence and mortality on colorectal cancer were estimated by linear regression and logarithmic curve fitting（ Logarithmic model）. [Results]The crude incidence and standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in the period from 2004 to 2010 showed the rising trend（ P〈0. 05）,and the incidence in males was higher than that in females（ P〈0. 05）. The main parts of colorectal cancer were the colon and rectum（ 97. 46%）. The trend of the crude mortality on colorectal cancer was erratic in the period from 1973 to 2012. But the standardized mortality,truncate adjusted incidence rate,cumulative rate,PYLL rate and standardized PYLL rate showed a steady downward trend,which decreased by 57. 75%,71. 14%,69. 86%,58. 21%,60. 00% and 79. 04%,respectively（ P〈0. 05）. [Conclusion]The epidemic situation of colorectal cancer is serious in Changshu City. It is necessary to strengthen the malignant tumor monitoring and comprehensive prevention,to reduce the incidence of colorectal cancer among residents.