化学中毒突发公共卫生事件风险评估指标体系和评估方法探讨

Discussion on risk assessment index system and assessment method of public health emergencies caused by chemical poisoning

作者综合利用文献综述、经验判断、层次分析、Delphi专家咨询、专家评议等方法,通过系统分析,筛选出影响化学中毒突发公共卫生事件发生的关键风险要素,构建了二级风险评估指标体系,合理地给予分值权重。归纳提出计划和准备、实施评估、报告和风险建议的三步风险评估流程,并就风险指数、事件后果严重性、风险发生概率、风险等级的估算或确定方法进行了探讨说明。初步构建的风险评估框架,需在实践中进一步补充完善、调整。

By using the literature review,experience judgment,hierarchical analysis,Delphi expert consultation and expert review, the paper screened out the critical risk factors which affect the occurrence of public health emergencies caused by chemical poisoning with a systematic analysis,constructed the secondary risk assessment index system,and distributed the score weighting reasonably. The authors developed a three-step risk assessment process which included planning and preparation,implementation and assessment,as well as reporting and giving risk assessment suggestions,and made the discussion and illustration on the risk indexes, the consequences severity of the emergency,the probability of the risk,methods about estimation and determination of the risk degree. This preliminary risk assessment frame needs to be completed and adjusted in practice.