渭干河-库车河三角洲绿洲棉花种植面积时空变化特征分析

Analysis of spatio-temporal variation characteristics of cotton planted areas in Weigan-Kuqa River Delta Oasis

利用研究区棉花种植面积和产量相关统计数据,探究研究区棉花种植面积和产量的时空变化特征及单产和面积作用对棉花产量的影响。研究结果表明:(1)近62年来,研究区的棉花种植面积、棉花产量和单产均呈上升趋势,而且表现出明显的阶段性和波动性,1949—1985年间增长缓慢,1986—2011年增长迅速。(2)就棉花总产波动来看,单产的作用占42.04%,面积作用占50.96%,在1949—1985年间单产增加对棉花总产量提高的贡献较大,在1986—2011年间棉花种植面积扩大对棉花总产量提高的贡献较大。(3)1985年前棉花种植面积较稳定,波动不大,主要靠挤占粮食作物面积来扩大,1986年之后棉花种植面积扩大迅速,主要途径为开荒造地。(4)棉花市场价格的波动、生产成本的上升、产量的徘徊、生产环境的恶化和品种等直接影响着研究区棉花生产的竞争力和棉农增收。

Using the relevant statistical data of cotton planted area and yield in study region ,has explored the spa-tio-temporal variation characteristics of cotton planted areas with yield and effect of the function of yield and area to the cotton output .The research results showed that ：（1 ） In recent 62 years ,the cotton planted area ,cotton output and yield total have showed an upward trend in the study region ,further more ,have performed obvious stage and fluctuation ,slow increase from 1949 to 1985 ,but rapid growth from 1986 to 2011 .（2 ） As to the cotton production fluctuation ,the effect of the unit yield was 42 .04% ,the area was 50 .96% .During 1949 to 1985 ,the unit yield increase was more contribu-tion to the cotton output increasing ,while the cotton planted area was more contribution to the cotton output increasing during 1986-2011 .（3） Before 1985 ,the cotton planted area was rather stable with less fluctuation ,mostly expanded by the area of food crop ,but after 1986 ,cotton planted area begun to expand rapidly ,most by wasteland reclamation . （4 ） The fluctuation of the cotton market price ,the rise of the production cost ,the cotton output up and down ,degrada-tion of production environment and the cotton variety and so on had a direct impact to the competitiveness of cotton pro-duction and the income increasing of cotton farmers in the study area .