摘要
模型方法在分析、模拟和预测土地利用变化中发挥着重要的作用。本文基于遥感方法得到1986、1996和2006年昆明市域土地利用图,在GIS技术的支持下对CLUE-S模型在地形复杂的昆明区域的适用性进行了评价。在考虑不同政策和发展趋势的影响下,设定了3个预案对昆明市域2007—2020年的土地利用进行了模拟。结果表明:CLUE-S模型在20年的时间尺度内能够较好模拟昆明市的土地利用变化。"历史发展趋势预案"下,作为研究区景观基质的林地面积将不断减少,建设用地和草地面积将不断增加,景观破碎化程度不断加剧;"规划预案"下,建设用地上升最快,耕地和林地面积下降,景观格局破碎化的趋势比历史发展趋势下有所放缓;"生态优先预案"下,林地面积不断上升,耕地和草地面积下降,景观格局将向着优化的方向发展。CLUE-S模型模拟结果能够对区域规划和相关土地利用政策制定提供有力的技术手段和科学支撑。
Land-use model plays an important role in land-use change analysis,simulation and prediction. Land-use maps in 1986,1996 and 2006 in Kunming were interpreted based on remote sensing images. The suitability of the CLUE-S model was estimated in Kunming with complex topography. Three scenarios were designed considering different polices and development trends for land use from 2007 to 2020. In the "historic development trend scenario",forestland area( matrix of the landscape) would decrease constantly,while build-up land and grassland area would increase. The landscape pattern would be more fragmental. In the "planning scenario",build-up land would increase rapidly,while farmland and forest land would decrease. The trend of landscape fragment would be less severe than that in the "historical development trend scenario". In the "ecology-priority scenario",forestland would increase,while farmland and grassland would decrease,and the trajectory of landscape fragment and the landscape pattern would be more optimized. The simulated results of CLUE-S model provide a scientific support for land-use planning and policy-making in Kunming.
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第6期1655-1662,共8页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ15B06)资助