摘要
利用标准差、市场占有率、地理集中指数、变异系数和赫芬达尔指数对云南省入境客流量的空间集聚状况进行定量分析.研究表明：云南省各市州入境旅游接待规模差异较大,入境客流量的空间集聚性较强,入境旅游市场分化程度较低,市场竞争激烈,入境客源分布较为平衡.以云南省统计年鉴2001～2012年的入境旅游数据为基础,建构GM（1,1）模型并进行精度检验.研究表明：模型预测结果与实际数据几乎一致,进而利用该模型对云南省未来入境旅游指标进行预测.
This paper uses the standard deviation, market share, geographic concentration index, coefficient of variation and Herfindahl Index, immigration traffic spatial agglomeration in Yunnan Province for quantitative analysis. Research has shown that the scale difference of inbound tourism in Yunnan Province is bigger, the spatial agglomeration of inbound tourists is stronger, the differentiation degree of inbound tourism market is lower and the market competition is fierce, the distribution of inbound tourist source is more balanced. In the inbound tourism of Yunnan statistical yearbook 2001 -2012 data as the foundation, the author builds GM（ 1,1 ） model and inspects it precisely. Studies show that the model prediction results and the actual data are almost identical, and then use the GM （ 1,1 ） model of index to forecast inbound tourism indicators in Yunnan Province.
出处
《云南地理环境研究》
2013年第6期64-68,82,共6页
Yunnan Geographic Environment Research
基金
辽宁省社科规划基金项目(L13BJY032)
关键词
入境旅游
空间集聚
GM(1
1)模型
云南省
inbound tourism
spatial agglomeration
GM （ 1,1 ） model
Yunnan Province
