基于“3D”框架的江苏省地级市经济地理格局空间演化研究

Economic Space Evolution of Prefecture-Level Cities in Jiangsu Province Based on Density,Distance and Division

基于世界银行发展报告中的距离、密度、整合"3D"视角,运用主成分分析和空间自相关方法研究江苏省地级市经济地理空间演化格局,结果表明:1)江苏省各市经济密度和经济整合虽持续发展,但苏南、苏中和苏北地区的差距仍有扩大的趋势;经济距离优势总体表现显著,但苏中优于苏南、苏南优于苏北。2)2000年以来各市的经济地理空间类型各有不同,苏州、吴锡、南京呈现"3D"类型,连云港、宿迁、徐州呈现"0D"类型,其他城市都有一定程度的变化。针对不同的类型,应采取不同的政策优化经济地理空间格局。3)各市3D综合得分空间上呈显著正相关,即高值与高值地区、低值与低值地区相邻,正极化效应和弱极化效应明显,但随着经济发展聚集程度有所变化,且呈线性下降态势。4)经济整合力度弱、经济空间分割强烈是苏中城市面临的主要问题,而经济距离是苏北城市面临的主要问题;苏中城市将成为经济空间优化发展潜力最大的区域,提升苏中各城市的经济密度和整合水平是江苏省经济空间优化的主要方向。

Based on 3D（Distance,Density,Division） perspective in World Bank Development Report,using the principal component analysis and geo-autocorrelation method,the paper analyzes the economic space evolution of prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province.The results show that..1） Although economic density and economic integration are developing,the gap between southern,central and northern regions in J iangsu are still growing;economic distance performs significant advantage overall,but the central cities are better than the southern and northern cities.2） The municipal economic geography space types have varied since 2000,Suzhou,Wuxi and Nanjing present ＂3D＂ type,Lianyungang,Suqian,Xuzhou present ＂0D＂ type,others have a certain degree of changes,in view of the ＂2D＂,＂ 1D＂,＂0D＂ types,we should adopt different methods to optimize economic geography space.3） The ＂3D＂ scores of prefecture-level cities of Jiangsu present positive correlation,which makes the positive and the weak polarization obviously,but with the economic development,the degree of aggregation varies and declines in linear way.4） Economic integration is weak and the spatial segmentation is strong,which are the major problems faced by the central cities of Jiangsu,while the economic distance is a major problem faced by cities in northern Jiangsu.The central Jiangsu will become the largest potential region,and enhancing economic density and economic integration level are the main direction of provincial economic space optimization in Jiangsu.