中国省域碳排放趋同与经济增长

The Convergence of Carbon Emission and Economic Growth across Provinces:Theory and Evidence

本文在分析1996～2010年中国28个省区碳排放增长差异的基础上，系统检验了人均碳排放及碳排放强度的敛散性。同时，对碳排放与经济增长两者增量之间的关系进行了分析，得出以下结论：（1）单位根检验的结果表明，无论是人均碳排放还是碳排放强度均存在随机趋同；（2）不同省区之间的人均碳排放存在条件趋同，其收敛速度约为3％，半衰期大约23年；省区间排放差距的关键因素是工业化进程与贸易开放度；碳排放强度存在绝对趋同，其收敛速度大约6％，半衰期约为12年；（3）人均碳排放增长率与人均GDP增长率正相关，存在规模效应；与人均GDP存在正相关关系；碳排放强度增长率并不存在规模效应；人均GDP对碳排放强度增长率具有负效应，即人均GDP的增加会带来碳排放强度增长率的降低。

Large amounts of carbon dioxide emissions produced by energy consumption in China have attracted a great deal of attention from the government. The main factor influenced the carbon dioxide emissions is economic activity. Governments must make economic growth compatible with environment protection, and development of methods by which to control carbon dioxide emissions is important. Governments should pursue the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions as well as the gradual equalization of carbon dioxide emissions cross-province. Carbon dioxide emissions must converge at a specific target to achieve the objective of reduced emissions. Since China was considered the world＇s largest carbon dioxide emissions-producing country in 2007, the Chinese government has aimed to reduce such emissions by 2020. China has vast territories, strong economic development, rich resources, and so on, and its carbon dioxide emissions vary widely across its provinces. Understanding carbon dioxide emission trends thoroughly across provinces in China is of great importance. Convergence of carbon dioxide emissions is a core concern for policymakers, particularly in China that pursue the long goal of allocating these emissions equally to other countries on a per-capita basis. The convergence of carbon dioxide emissions is necessary, while lack of emissions convergence may protract the process of these emissions allocation to materialize. Therefore, examination of whether or not carbon dioxide emissions have a pattern of convergence across provinces in China is necessary, and determination of which factors impact the convergence of carbon dioxide emissions must be performed.