淮河流域洪涝变化动力系统研究

An Approach to the Dynamics of the Flood Series in the Huaihe River Basin

非线性现象是现代科学最重要的研究课题之一 ,地理现象无不存在着非线性。目前 ,地理学对非线性现象的研究多从分形角度开展 ,对其本质———混沌的研究较少。在先前关于淮河流域洪涝变化序列及其非线性特征研究的基础上 ,运用混沌理论和微分方程反演理论 ,对淮河流域洪涝变化混沌动力系统进行了初步研究 ,重建了一个 3维 2次非线性模型。研究表明 ,淮河流域洪涝变化混沌动力系统具有较Lorenz等典型混沌系统更复杂的形式。

The study of the nonlinear phenomena is one of the most important fields in modern scientific research It is called that chaos is one of the most important discoveries in the 20th century It comes into being effect to the geographical research As a matter of the fact, nonlinear phenomena are everywhere in geographical field The nonlinear research in geographical filed mainly focuses on the fractal study now, especially on the geometric fractal study However, chaos which is the basis of the nonlinear phenomena is studied less in geography It is believed that the chaotic study will be researched gradually and successively with the deepening of the nonlinear study in geography Based on the flood series of the Huaihe River Basin in the last 500 year period, the nonlinear phenomena of the flood series in the Huaihe River Basin, including fractal features, chaotic characteristics, attractor dimension and Lyapunov indices are previously studied The present paper analyzes the dynamics of the flood series in the Huaihe River Basin and reconstructs a nonlinear dynamical model which is 3 dimension and second power according to chaotic theory and differential equation method The research shows that the reconstructed nonlinear dynamical system of the flood series in the Huaihe River Basin is more complex than that of the typical chaotic model, like Lorenz model It has reasons that the study is only beginning but useful for the nonlinear research in geography