城镇化与现代服务业发展对扩大消费需求的实证研究

Empirical Study of Influence of Development of Urbanization and Modern Services on Expansion of Consumption Demands

采用系统GMM两步法,利用2000-2011年中国31个省级面板数据考察了城镇化与现代服务业发展对中国需求规模的影响。实证结果表明:服务业单纯的规模增加并不能为扩大内需提供帮助,其对需求的促进作用主要体现为"就业效应";城镇化可以促进地区需求规模的提高,城镇化率每增加1%,带动需求提升0.239%。此外,研究还显示出口贸易有助于扩大内需;现阶段FDI的流入不利于需求规模的提高;由于存在较为严重的地区分割,基础设施建设无法为扩大内需提供支撑。

This paper employs two -step Gaussian Mixture Model （GMM） to analyze how urbanization and modem service influence Chinese demand scale by using the panel data of 31 provinces ranging from 2000 to 2011. The empirical study results show that simple scale increase does not offer any help to expanding domestic demands, and its improving effect on demands is mainly manifested in the ＂employment effect＂. However, urbanization can promote the rise of the local demand scale. When the urbanization ratio increases 1%, the driven demand will enhance about 0. 239%. Moreover, the study also indicates that export trade is conducive to expanding domestic demands. At present stage, the inflow of foreign direct investment （FDI） is not favorable to the rise of the demand scale. Because of relatively severe regional segmentation, infrastructure construction is unable to offer support to expanding domestic demands.