货物贸易视角下中海自贸区收益的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the China-GCC FTA's Effects from the Perspective of Trades of Goods

中国与海合会在货物商品生产上的比较优势差异十分明显,双方具有实现贸易自由化的良好基础。不过,全球贸易分析模型对中海自贸区静态收益所做的分析却表明,中海自贸区的建立使双方受益的基础源自海合会油气产量的提高。而从海合会各国当前执行的能源政策来看,海合会国家油气产量并不会受中海自贸区建立的影响,由此,自贸区带来的静态收益也将十分微小。此外,从中海自贸区建立收益的动态分析看出,如不能带来中国国内能源价格的下降,中海自贸区的建立将会成为单方面惠及海合会的货物贸易安排。因此,中国应将油气出口定价问题纳入中海自贸区谈判,借助自贸区建立消除"亚洲升水",使中海自贸区成为惠及中海双方的货物贸易安排。

The comparative advantage in the production of commercial goods differs a lot between China and GCC. In this way, China and GCC acquire excellent basis for achieving trade liberalization with each other. And according to the simulation results of GTAP model for the static gains brought by China - GCC FrA, the gains for each part of the agreement derived from GCC＇ s oil and gas productions increase. However, the current energy policies of GCC countries mean that oil and gas production will not change with the implement of China - GCC FTA and without oil/gas production growth from GCC, the gains from FTA will be minimized sharply. In addition, as the dynamic analysis of the China -GCC FTA presented, if the FTA cannot bring down China＇ s domestic energy prices, China- GCC FTA can only benefit GCC. Therefore, China should put the issue of oil/gas pricing into the current FTA negotiations between China and GCC. And if China - GCC FTA eliminates the ＂Asian premium＂ for oil or gas exported from GCC to China, the FTA will benefit both the partners in this agreement.