论军队在埃及变局及其政治转型中的作用

On the Military's Role in Upheaval and the Political Transformation in Egypt

长期以来,军队一直是影响埃及政治发展的重要因素。伴随着埃及近代历史进程,军方形成了独特的团体性特征,其表现为团体意识、利益特殊化和独立决断能力,由此决定埃及军方在政治和社会变革时期的决策倾向和行为方式。中东变局发生后,埃及教俗之间的对峙、军方与文官政府(穆尔西时期)之间的矛盾相互交织,但是,军方仍直接或间接主导着埃及政治转型进程,其作用具有双重性:既是维护埃及社会稳定的最重要力量,对于防止社会分裂、保证社会秩序、结束政治混乱发挥重要作用;同时作为特殊利益团体,其行动逻辑乃是明显维护军方特权地位。从长远看,此状况将会阻碍埃及民主化进程,甚至损害民主发展的质量。

The Egyptian military plays an important role in the political development process for a long time. The development of the Egyptian military shows the unique corporateness characteristics： autonomous decision - making capacity, special group interest, and group consciousness, which determines the decision- making and behavior tendencies of the Egyptian military in the political and social transformation. After the turmoil in the Middle East, Egypt faces secular -religious confrontation and civil- military contradiction, however, the military still dominates the political transition process in Egypt directly or indirectly. Its role is twofold： on the one hand, the military is the most important force in maintaining social stability in Egypt, it plays a role in preventing social fragmentation, ensuring social order and ending political chaos; on the other, as a special interest group, it acts for maintaining the privileged position of the military. In the long term, it could impede the process of democratization, and even undermine the quality of democratic development in Egypt.