中国老年人口亲子数量与结构计算机仿真分析

Computer Simulation on the Parent-Child Structure of Chinese Aged Population

文章以CFPS2010调查原始数据和全国第六次人口普查汇总数据为基础,应用亲子结构计算机微观仿真模型,动态模拟、分析老年人口现有存活子女状况和变化趋势。研究结果表明,在低生育水平条件下,不同队列老年人口现存子女状况存在很大差异。无儿、无女和无子女老年人口迅速增加,儿女双全比例迅速减少。预计到2050年全国无子女老年人口比例将超过1O%,人口规模将在5 600万人以上。儿女双全老年人口比例将从2010年的60%左右下降到2050年的35%左右。多子女老年人口比例也将从2010年的56%左右下降到2050年的10%以下。

On the basis of a survey on CFPS2010 and 2010 Chinese Population Census data,this paper analyses the conditions and trends of living children of the elderly population by using the computer simulation model and data processing methods.The result shows that there is a big difference between cohorts of the elderly population who have living children under the condition of the low fertility level.The proportion of the elderly population with no son,no daughter and no children is rapidly increasing while those who have both son and daughter are rapidly decreasing.By the year of 2050,the proportion of the elderly population without children will be more than 10 percent and its size will be more than 56 million.The proportion of the aged population with both son and daughter will decrease from around 60 percent in 2010 to 35 percent in 2050.The proportion of the aged with more than two children will also decrease from around 56 percent in 2010 to 10 percent in 2050.