“单独二孩”政策实施与云南人口发展预期研究

The Implementation of the New Family Planning Policy and Population Development Project of the Yunnan Province

实施“单独二孩”策是顺应当代中国人口演变态势而做出的重大举措，但这一政策的实施成效取决于对各省政策涉及人群规模变化及其生育意愿强弱的把握。文章对云南省的研究发现，“单独二孩”政策实施当年，将有1．3万24～39岁女性成为政策出台后的率先践行者，新增人口计在2016年达到4．5万的生育峰值后将明显回落，2020年以后更将退回到新政实施前的水平。“中方案”预测表明，新政的实施在微观家庭层面有明显效果，但在宏观人口层面的政策效应较为有限。

The New Family Planning Policy(NFPP) is an important decision to make concerned administration adaptive to China's population change.The effect of the NFPP in a province lies on the women population size and their fertility desires.According to a research in Yunnan province,13 thousand females aged between 24 and 39 are the first beneficial group in the initial year of the implementation of the NFPP.The additional population will be at peak of 45 thousand in 2016 and then decrease obviously.After 2020,the increase of population will be similar with the population in pre-NFPP period.The' middle fertility level' project reveals that the NFPP will affect gready the micro-household level,but its impact at the macro-population will be limited.