广州中尺度模式局地要素预报性能分析

ANALYSIS ON THE ELEMENT PREDICTION PERFORMANCE OF THE GUANGZHOU MESOSCALE NWP MODEL

该文简要介绍了华南中尺度模式的地表要素的预报诊断方案 ,站点要素时间序列预报情况 .用适合站点要素时间序列预报的检验方法 ,检验并分析了各要素时间序列预报的性能 .表明该中尺度模式的地表要素时间序列预报方案是有效的 ,预报具有较高的准确性和应用价值 .

The surface element prediction/diagnostic scheme of the Guangzhou Mesoscale NWP Model and the situation of its time evolution prediction of station elements are briefly introduced. The time series prediction of station elements is verified and analyzed by using the method suitable for time series verification. Better and sustained performance are shown for time series prediction of most elements, including rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind, pressure and cloud amount.