客观预报中格点因子处理方法探讨

A Proceeding Method of Grid Factor for Objective Forecast

在采用数值预报产品制作温度、降水客观预报时 ,一种常见的方法是对数值预报产品格点因子进行平滑处理 ,以利于过滤噪声。为了确定对格点因子进行平滑处理与非平滑处理的优劣 ,采用 1995～ 1997年 6～ 9月的国家气象中心 T10 6数值预报产品资料 ,分别建立了这两种方法的山东省各测站 1～ 5天日极端温度、降水量 MOS预报方程。并对 1999年 7～ 9月的预报结果进行了对比检验 ,结果表明 ,非平滑处理优于平滑处理的预报效果。

Making objective prediction of temperature and precipitation with numerical weather prediction products,a common method is used in smoothing the numerical weather prediction product factors so as to filtrate noise.To compare smoothing factors with non smoothing ones,MOS forecast equations about daily extreme temperature and rainfall in 1—5 days at various Shandong weather stations were set up,with the two methods respectively and the use of T106 numerical weather prediction product data of during Jun.—Sep.from 1995 to 1997.The two prediction results during Jul.—Sep.in 1999 were tested.It shows that forecast effect of non smoothness management is superior to that of the smoothness management.