全球资本流动逆转:新兴市场经济体如何应对?

How Should Emerging-Market Economies Cope with Reversed International Capital Flow

随着美国量化宽松政策的逐步退出,国际资本流动发生了根本性逆转,经济基本面脆弱的新兴市场经济体难逃全球资本流动逆转带来的厄运。相对于其他新兴市场经济体,中国的情况比较特殊,短期爆发危机的可能性不大,但是经济增长放缓不可避免。面对经济增长放缓和国内国际因素导致的高利率,中国的货币政策要协调好与美国货币政策的同步性问题。

As the US tapers off its quantitative easing,there has been a major reversal in international capital flow.It would be an unavoidable disaster for emerging-market economies with weak fundamentals.Compared with other emerging-market economies,China faces a unique situation and is unlikely to experience a crisis in the short term,although economic slow-down would be inevitable.Amid economic growth deceleration and rising interest rates caused by both internal and external factors,China should well coordinate its monetary policy with that of the United States.