气候变迁的历史维度——勒华拉杜里的气候史研究

The Historical Dimension of Climate Change:Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie's Climate History Research

勒华拉杜里是法国气候史学的奠基人。自1950年代起,勒华拉杜里向法国学界仍旧盛行的气候一成不变说发起挑战,借鉴物候学(葡萄采摘日期)、冰川学方法,并参考历史文献记载,使用系列史方法,运用年鉴学派的时段理论,建构起西欧中世纪至今气候波动的精确系列。在此基础上,他吸取乡村史家与人口史家的成果,考察气候波动对西欧社会造成的影响以及历史上一系列重要事件的气候背景,并在西欧不同国家之间展开比较。经过勒华拉杜里近六十年的探索,气候史学已发展成一门广受关注的新兴历史学科,并在欧洲形成了一个由不同学科的学者参与的跨国研究网络。但是,由于历史学家中从事气候史研究的人并不多,对气候史感兴趣的其他学科的学者又缺少历史知识,勒华拉杜里开辟的气候史学的前景并不乐观。

Emmanuel Ire Roy Ladurie is a founder of climate history in France. Since the 1950s, to challenge the theory of fixism, he drew on the experience of phenology （the grape harvest date）and glaciology, consulted the archives, used the method of serial history,adopted the periods of time of the Annales School,and finally succeeded in reconstructing an accurate series of climate change in Western Europe from the middle ages to the present. Furthermore, by absorbing the results of historians on rural society and demographers and making a comparative analysis between different countries in Western Europe,Le Roy Ladurie probed into the impact of the climate change on the human society via famine and revolution. Thanks to nearly sixty years＇ effort of Le Roy Ladurie, the climate history has developed into a new discipline with wide concern, and a transnational network of research including scholars in different disciplines in different countries has taken shape. However, on the one hand, few historians are engaged in climate history, and on the other hand,scholars from other disciplines who take interest in climate history haven＇t a solid background of historical knowledge, which makes the prospect of the climate history initiated by Le Roy Ladurie less optimistic.