昭鲁盆地近50年主要气象灾害变化特征分析

The Main Meteorological Disasters Variation Characteristics of Zhaolu Basin in the Nearly 50 Years

利用云南省昭通市昭鲁盆地内气象观测站近50年干旱、洪涝、8月低温冷害、病虫资料分析,其结果表明:近50年旱灾出现的频率有增多趋势,21世纪农作物年平均旱灾为多年平均经济损失的近3倍;洪涝灾使农作物的成灾率从70年代的26.9%上升到21世纪为64.2%,对农业生产的危害性逐步加重;8月低温冷害近50年来共造成了中等及以上的低温冷害共26年,其发生的频率为46%,随着近20年来夏季气温升高趋势的影响,在21世纪冷害发生的年数也有减少的趋势。

According to the data analysis of Zhaolu Basin meteorological stations in Zhaotong City, Yunnan Province drought, floods, August cold damage, pest in the nearly 50 years, the results showed that： the frequency of drought in the past 50 years has a growing trend, in the 21st century, the average drought of crop nearly three times more than the average annual economic loss; Flood disaster makes disaster rate of crops increased from 26.9% in the 1970s to the 64.2% in the 2tst century, the dangers of agricultural production gradually increased; August cold damage in the nearly 50 years resulting in a total of 26 years of medium and above cold damage, the frequency of occurrence of 46%. With the influence of nearly 20 years of summer warming trends, in the 21st century, the number of cold damage has a downward trend.