奉贤区大气主要污染物对当地居民循环系统疾病死亡影响的研究

Investigation on impact of air pollution on death from circulatory system diseases in Fengxian,Shanghai

目的：了解奉贤区当地居民循环系统疾病死亡状况，掌握大气主要污染物（ SO2、NO2、PM10）急性暴露对当地居民循环系统疾病死亡的影响，找出影响奉贤居民循环系统疾病死亡最主要的污染物，为后续控制大气污染、减少疾病死亡提供依据。方法：基于生态流行病学的原理，采用描述性统计分析和广义相加模型分析的统计方法分析SO2、NO2、PM10与居民循环系统疾病死亡的关系。结果：2008-2012年间，奉贤地区循环系统疾病死亡人数累计5373例，65岁以上老年组循环系统疾病死亡率最高（1214．74/10万）。单污染物模型显示，对奉贤全人群，SO2浓度每上升10μg＆#183; m-3，导致居民循环系统疾病死亡率增加1．82％（95％CI：0．09％～3．54％），NO2、PM10的浓度变化和奉贤当地居民循环系统疾病死亡率之间没有统计学关联；对65岁以上老年人群，SO2、NO2、PM10的浓度变化和奉贤当地居民循环系统疾病死亡率之间也没有统计学关联。 SO2的多污染模型拟合结果显示，SO2会增加循环系统疾病的死亡。结论：奉贤区大气气态污染物SO2是影响当地居民循环系统疾病死亡的主要因素。

Objective：This study aims to understand status of death from circulatory system diseases in Fengxian in recent years,analyze the impact of air pollution on death from circulatory system diseases in Fengxian district residents＇population ,and to find the main air pollutant which has main impact on the death from circulatory system diseases , and provide advice for air pollution control and reduce related diseases .Methods：Taking the ecological epidemiology principle as the data analysis basis ,and the related statistical analysis including descriptive statistical analysis and statistical model analysis-GAM of time sequence analysis was made .Results： In 2008-2012, the number of death from circulatory system diseases in Fengxian district residents population was 5 373 ,and year 65＋group with highest mortality （1 214.74/100K）.For the whole population,the increase percentage of death from circulatory system diseases per 10 μg· m-3 increase of SO2 was 1.82%（95%CI：0.09%-3.54%）;for year 65＋group, there was no statistical relationship between the increase percentage of death from circulatory system diseases and the concentration changes of SO 2 , NO2 , PM10;Multiple contaminations model fitting analysis showed that for the whole population and year 65＋group,the mutipal contaminations model fitting of SO 2 analysis showed the effect of SO2 on death from circulatory system diseases increased .Conclusion： SO2 is the main air pollutant for death from circulatory system diseases in Fengxian .