区域性新型农村合作医疗发展水平的系统动力学比较研究

The Comparative Analysis on the System Dynamics' Development Level of Regional New Rural Cooperative Medical System

目的:结合新型农村合作医疗发展评价要素对我国四大区域(东、中、西及东北部)2007—2012年间新农合发展历程给予系统动力学比较及评价。方法:确定新农合评价要素的计量关系并设计系统动力学模型,模拟各区域新农合发展变化指数及其相对比值。结果:近年间各区域新农合指数相对值落差逐渐缩小,说明其发展不均衡态总体减弱;新农合人均筹资额大幅增加(从52元/人至340元/人),支付筹资比基本持平在较高比例(90%左右),累计结余率除东部地区外缓慢上升。结论:扩充筹资规模,提高资金利用率,是进一步缩小地区差异、提高区域新农合发展水平的切实措施。

Objective： To Make the comparative analysis and assessments on development of New Rural Cooperative Medical System （NCMS） among 4 regions of China（eastern areas, midland areas, western areas and northeast areas） from 2007 to 2012 by systems dynamics. Methods： To determine the measurement relationship between evaluation factors of NCMS and design the model for system dynamics, simulate the index of NCMS development changes in different areas and their relative rates. Results： The differences among the regional indexes of the system have been reduced gradually due to the weakness of uneven conditions in regional economy in recent years; per capita amount of NCMS showed a sharp rise（from 52 yuan per capita to 340 yuan per capita） , the ratio of payment financing remained at a higher rate（around 90%） , the cumulative balance rate climbed slowly except the eastern areas. Conclusion： In order to eliminate the differences and improve the NCMS development level of the regions, increasing the financing scale and improving the effectiveness of funds are practical resolutions.