1961—2010年新丰县气候资源的变化特征

Characteristics of the Variation of Climate Resources in Xinfeng County from 1961 to 2010

根据1961—2010年新丰气象站观测资料,采用线性趋势分析、滑动平均等方法,研究了近50年来新丰县气候资源的变化特征。结果表明,新丰气温呈变暖趋势,特别是21世纪以来升温明显,气温的变化不具有突变特征,冬季对气候变暖贡献最大;稳定≥10℃的活动积温呈增加趋势。降水为减少趋势且具有突变特征,突变点为1991年,降水减少明显;日照也呈减少趋势且在1989年存在突变。进一步分析,发现气候变暖导致春季和秋季干旱事件发生的频率增加;降水虽然呈减少趋势,但夏季的降水呈增加趋势,说明降水强度发生了变化,灾害造成的经济损失在增大。

Based on the observations from a meteorological station at Xinfeng from 1961 to 2010 and with the methods of linear trend analysis and moving average,the characteristics of the variation of climate resources in Xinfeng County over this period are studied. The results are shown as follows. The local temperature tends to be getting higher,especially so since the beginning of the 21 st century,but not in an abrupt way. Winter contributes the most to climate warming. Increasing trends are also found in active accumulative temperatures that are constantly ≥10 ℃. Decreasing trends exist in precipitation and are marked with abrupt change,in 1991,which features sharp reduction in the amount of rain. The duration of sunshine is also decreasing with an abrupt change in 1989. With further analysis,it is found that climate warming has increased the frequency of drought events in spring and autumn. The rainfall is generally decreasing but it is increasing in summer,suggesting changes in the rain intensity that result in increased economic loss due to consequential disasters.