热带气旋引发电网群发性故障的动态事故集生成方法

A Method to Generate Dynamic Accident Set for Power Grid Clustered Faults Caused by Tropical Cyclone

针对近年来热带气旋灾害屡次造成我国沿海电网电力设备损坏甚至局部地区停电的现状,提出了一种由热带气旋引发电网群发性故障的动态事故集生成方法。通过对线路历史故障率统计数据的折算,建立单位档距线路故障率随其所受风压的变化曲线,根据单位档距线路的实时风压信息计算出单位档距线路的故障率及其在所选取时窗内发生故障的概率;将整回线路视作由若干档距串联而成的可靠性系统,由可靠性公式计算出线路发生故障的概率。进一步地,通过设定允许进入故障集的概率门槛或故障截止重数以选择故障组合状态,对满足条件的故障状态进行排序,形成群发性动态故障集。通过测试电网受高强度热带气旋影响的算例,采用设定概率门槛的方法选取故障组合状态并排序生成动态故障集,从而验证了方法的实用性。

According to the situation that the tropical cyclone frequently causes the damage of power equipments in costal power grids in China and even leads to the power supply interruption in local regions,a method to generate dynamic accident set for power grid clustered faults caused by tropical cyclone is proposed.Through the conversion of the statistical data of historical fault rate of transmission lines,a curve of line fault rate in specific span varying with the wind pressure born by the line is established,and based on real-time wind pressure born by the line in specific span the fault rate of the line in specific span and its probability of fault occurrence within the chosen time window are calculated; regarding the whole length of the line as a reliability system composed of several spans connected in series,the probability of fault occurrence of the whole line can be calculated by the formula of the serial reliability system.Further,a probability threshold is set to judge whether the fault state could be entered into the fault set or cut-off multiplicity of the fault is stipulated to choose the combined states of faults,and then the fault states that meet the requirements are sorted to form a dynamic clustered fault set.The practicability of the proposed method is validated by a test case of power grid impacted by high intensity of tropical cyclone,and the method of setting probability threshold is adopted to choose combined states of faults,sort them and finally generate the dynamic fault set.