一种新的地震预测方法在华南沿海地震带的检验与应用

Test and Application on a New Way of Earthquake Prediction in the Coastal Seismic Belt of Southern China

以华南沿海地震带为例,针对孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论方法应用于中等—弱震构造区的适宜性问题进行了回溯性检验。结果显示:86%的锁固段断裂点通过相对误差γ≤5%置信水平的检验,表明该理论方法基本适用于华南沿海地震带;4个孕震空间区域内各锁固段断裂点与加速应变能释放起点的累积Benioff应变之比ξ略小于1.48,这可能与地壳介质均匀程度、地质环境与实验室条件的差异及地震目录的缺失等因素有关。最后给出了各孕震空间区域未来强震的临界应变值、可能的发震时间和震级。

Taking the coastal seismic belt of Southern China as an example,a retrospective research was done to verify the suitability problem on the application of brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system to medium-weak seismic tectonic regions.The results showed that：there were 86％ of the total rupturing points of locked patches which had passed a test by confidence level of relative errors γ≤5％,it showed that the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system can be used in the coastal seismic belt of Southern China.The ξ values which represented the cumulative Benioff strain ratio of the rupturing point of locked patches to the accelerated releasing point of strain energy were slightly less than 1.48 in the4 seismogenic space regions.It may be related to some factors,such as the degree of the crust medium homogeneity,the difference between geological environment and laboratory conditions and the lack of earthquakes catalog etc..On the basis of these works,the critical strain value,the possible occurrence time and magnitude of the future strong earthquake in 4 seismogenic space regions was predicted.