松嫩平原土地利用生态安全评价与预测

Evaluation and Prediction of Ecological Security of Land Use in Songnen Plain

生态安全特别是区域土地利用生态安全的研究是当前的热点问题,对维护区域生态环境实现可持续发展具有重要的意义。以松嫩平原1980,2000,2010年TM影像为依据,利用综合指数评价法计算松嫩平原土地利用生态安全综合评价指数,对松嫩平原1980—2010年土地利用生态安全风险时空变化进行了分析和预测。结果表明:(1)松嫩平原土地利用生态安全风险在空间上呈东北向西南递增的趋势。较低风险区比重最大,在50%以上。其次为中度风险区,低风险区,较高风险区,高风险区。(2)1980—2000年,各风险区面积均减少并向较低风险区转化,生态环境压力有所缓解。而在2000—2010年,低风险区和较低风险区均减少明显,向中、高风险转化趋势明显。(3)2020—2050年预测结果表明,中度风险等级、较高风险等级、高风险等级均表现出逐步递增趋势,松嫩平原生态安全恶化趋势明显。

The research on ecological safety,especially that of regional land use/cover is a hot issue,which is of great significance to the protection of regional ecological environment and the sustainable development. This paper,using TM images in 1980,2000,2010as the data source,developed a comprehensive index method to evaluate the ecological security of land use,analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of the ecological security in Songnen Plain during 1980to 2010,and predicted the ecological security pattern in the next 40years.The results showed that：（1）The risk of ecological security in land use increased from the northeast to the southwest.（2）The lower risk area proportion is the largest,accounting for more than 50%. From 1980to 2000,the other risk areas were reduced and transformed to lower risk area.This indicated that ecological environment pressure has been decreased.However,from 2000to 2010,The conversion of low and lower risk areas to higher risk areas is obvious.（3）The prediction showed that during the period from 2020to 2050,the area of moderate risk,high risk,and higher risk levels will increase gradually,and the ecological environment will deteriorate seriously.