河南省农用地集约利用对农民收入影响实证研究:1978—2012

Empirical Analysis on Relationship Between Agricultural Land Intensive Utilization and Income Growth of Rural Residents in Henan Province:1978-2012

基于河南省1978—2012年相关数据,利用遗传算法-BP神经网络模型测算了河南省农用地集约利用水平,在此基础上,通过采用协整分析、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解,从动态的视角对河南省农用地集约利用与农民收入之间进行了研究,结果表明:1978年以来河南省农用地利用集约水平不断上升,农民收入和农用地集约利用水平之间存在着长期均衡关系,长期内农用地利用集约度每提高1%,会引起农民收入水平提升0.41%;农民收入和农用地集约利用水平互为Granger因果关系,短期内农用地集约利用水平对农民收入弹性系数较小;脉冲响应函数和方差分解显示农用地集约度的提高将促进农民收入的增加,且对收入变化的解释能力随着时间推移逐渐增强。

Based on relevant data from 1978 to 2012 of Henan Province, this paper calculates the levels of agricultural land intensive utilization by using Genetic Algorithm-BP ANN.On this basis, by using co-integration analysis, impulse response function and Variance decomposition, we analysised the dynamic relationship between agricultural land intensive utilization and income growth of rural residents and＇got conclusions as follows： There exists long-term co- integration relationship between agricultural land intensive utilization and income growth of rural residents in Henan Province.When the agricultural land intensive utilization levels increase of 1 Units,0.4075 Units of income growth of rural residents increase. Agricultural land intensive utilization had faintly impetus for income growth of rural residents in the short term, and they have Granger causal relationship to each other.The impulse response function and variance decomposition shows that with the increase of the agricultural land intensive utilization level,the indices of peasant percapita income will promote too. Enhance its explanation capability of the income growth of rural residents over time.