产出缺口估算的新视角:基于劳动力市场效率的重构

New Perspectives on the Estimation of the Output Gap Based on the Reconstruction of Labor Market Efficiency

产出缺口是制定宏观经济政策的重要指示器。已有的产出缺口估算均基于无法直接观测的潜在产出。本文采用新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型,估算了一个基于劳动力市场效率的产出缺口(即GGL产出缺口)。与已有的研究相比,所有变量均可直接观测。运用贝叶斯极大似然估计的模型,结合贝叶斯脉冲响应函数与贝叶斯冲击分解,考察GGL产出缺口随时间变化的动态路径及其与传统产出缺口的动态差异,研究结果发现:由于失业回滞等原因使得GGL产出缺口比传统产出缺口更具持久性,但传统产出缺口波动更大。二者的差异意味着依靠经济增长促进就业的方式在我国收效甚微。因此,如果政策机制转向盯住GGL产出缺口,将有利于缓解当前严峻的失业问题。

Output gap is an important signal for macroeconomic policies. The existed estimation method is based on the unobservable potential output. This paper puts forward a new method to estimate the output gap based on the efficiency of the labor market in the framework of NKMP- DSGE, i.e. the GGL output gap. Compared with the classical output gap, the estimation of GGL output gap is based on the observable variables. The result of Bayesian impulse response function and shock decomposition show that the persistence of GGL output gap is much longer than the classical output gap. Consequently, we argue that if policy regime targets the GGL output gap, the serious unemployment is to be relieved.