财政民生支出对城镇居民消费影响的研究——基于湖南省的实证分析

On the Impact of People's Livelihood Expenditure on the Consumption of Urban Residents—An Empirical Study of Hunan

居民消费是未来拉动中国经济增长的核心动力,而影响居民消费的一个重要因素是政府在教育、医疗及社会保障等民生方面的财政支出是否能够降低居民进行预防性储蓄的预期.本文对湖南省1990 ～2012年度城镇居民消费、可支配收入、储蓄和财政民生支出之间关系的实证研究结果表明,湖南省居民消费与收入、储蓄和财政民生支出存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但财政民生支出的增加并未带动居民消费增长.而这种“挤出效应”,根本上源于我国改革进程中社会福利制度的不完善,基于此笔者提出了拉动居民消费的政策建议.

Residents＇ consumption is the key drive to China＇s ever-growing economy, and it is decided mainly by governmental fiscal expenditure in people＇s livelihood （education, medicine, social insurance） and its possibility in lowering residents＇ expectation of precautionary saving. In this study, we have analyzed the urban residents＇ consumption, their disposable income, saving and the relation between people＇s livelihood expenditure from 1990 to 2012 in Hunan. It is showed that there exists a stable balance relation between residents＇ consumption, income and saving and people＇s livelihood expenditure, and the growth of the latter part have not seen an obvious effect on the growth of residents＇ consumption. Such a crowding-out effect can be traced back to the imperfection of social welfare system in China＇s reform movement, and hence some suggestions are brought forward accordingly.