基于产业结构视角的人民币实际有效汇率对FDI的影响

Influence of RMB real effective exchange rate on FDI based on perspective of industrial structure

中国共产党十八届三中全会在《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干问题的决定》中明确提出:完善人民币汇率市场化形成机制,推动资本市场双向开放,放宽投资准入,推进服务业领域有序开放,放开服务业领域外资准入限制。人民币汇率与FDI又一次成为讨论的热点问题,继续推进人民币汇率市场化形成机制,更为重要的是经济增长以侧重GDP为主转变为内涵式发展、扩大外商投资领域、有力推进经济结构战略性调整、优化产业结构。从产业结构的视角,采用Johansen协整检验与Granger因果检验,通过对人民币实际有效汇率与FDI的关系进行实证分析表明:人民币实际有效汇率对第一产业、第二产业、第三产业的FDI均存在长期均衡发展关系;人民币实际有效汇率对第三产业的FDI影响最大,其次是第一产业,再次是第二产业。

The Third Plenary Session of the eighteenth put forward clearly in the CCP decision of the several issues on comprehensively deepening the reform：improve the marketization formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate,promote the capital markets two-way open,ease the investment access,and promote the service sector to open orderly,and open the foreign investment access of the service field.RMB exchange rate and FDI become a hot issue once again,the marketization formation mechanism should be continued to push forward.The more important is that economy focused on GDP should be shifted to the connotative development,expand the area of foreign investment,powerfully impel the strategic adjustment of economic structure and optimize the industrial structure.This paper carried out the empirical analysis on the relationship of RMB real effective exchange rate on FDI using Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test from the perspective of industrial structure.Finally,this paper concludes that the long-term balanced development is existed between the RMB real effective exchange rate and the FDI of three industry ;the effect of the RMB real effective exchange rate on FDI of the third industry is the largest,and the second is the other industry.