“上大压小”后发电厂电能送出线路利用方案的评估

Evaluation of Accession Lines Utilization Plans for Power Plants After Replacing Small Units With Large Ones

发电厂实施"上大压小"节能减排政策后,其电能送出线路的利用存在多种方案,亟需一种切实有效的方法进行评估,辅助决策。应用属性识别理论建立评估流程,结合变异系数法与专家赋权法确定指标的综合权重,按照置信度准则识别各方案所属类别。实例计算表明,应用属性识别理论能较好地将定量与定性指标相结合,综合权重能反映指标的主、客观影响力,所提方法能有效评估发电厂电能送出线路利用方案。敏感性分析指出,具体应用中需特别注意指标综合权重的不同构成比例可能会影响某些特殊方案的评估结果。

There are several schemes for outgoing line utilization after implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policy by ＆quot;replacing small units with large ones＆quot;. Therefore , a practical and effective evaluation method is urgently needed for evaluation and decision-making assistance. The attribute recognition theory is used to set up evaluation progress; the comprehensive weight of index is determined by combining variation coefficient method with expert weighting method; the category each scheme belongs to is identified according to confidence criterion. The example calculation shows that application of attribute recognition theo-ry can combine the quantitative index with qualitative index well;comprehensive weight can reflect subjective and objective influence of index; the method proposed can effectively evaluate outgoing line utilization schemes. The sensitivity analysis indicates that different composition ratio of comprehensive index weights may affect evaluation results of some special utilization schemes , to which special attention should be paid when the evaluation method is put into concrete application.