基于GAHP的小麦白粉病流行动态预测方法研究

Forecasting method for prevailing trend of wheat powdery mildew based on GAHP

针对目前小麦白粉病流行动态研究中存在的影响因子单一、预测结果有误报等问题,提出一种基于GAHP的小麦白粉病流行动态预测方法。该方法引入影响白粉病发生的多源因素,采用AHP算法定性分析影响因子和预测方案并定量计算出权重大小,同时聚类分析群组中各专家权重值,最后加权求和得出白粉病的流行动态。通过对2012年淮北地区小麦白粉病流行动态进行实例验证,对比发布的预测结果,结果准确,证明该方法的可行性和有效性较好。

Aiming at the existing problems in the forecast of the prevailing trend of wheat powdery mildew, this paper proposed a forecasting method for wheat powdery mildew prevailing trend based on group analytic hi- erarchy process （GAHP） to deal with effects of single factor and false on the predicted results. The method intro- duced multi-source factors which affect the occurrence of powdery mildew, using AHP algorithm to qualitatively analyze the impact factor and prediction scheme for calculating the weight, meanwhile, cluster analysis method was used to calculate the weight of experts. Ultimately, the prevailing trend of powdery mildew was predicted through the weighted sum of the two analysis results obtained. Compared with the predicted results released at Huaibei region Anhui in 2012, this method is feasible and effective.