计及源荷预测误差的微电网日前经济优化调度方法研究

The study on daily economic dispatch of microgrid considering source load forecasting error

微电网的日前经济调度是其能量管理中的重要环节。在调度过程中,由于分布式电源及负荷预测的误差,其调度值往往并非实际最优解。为了减小分布式电源及负荷预测误差对日前经济调度的影响,提出了一种对负荷及分布式电源的不确定性进行量化估计并以此对日前经济调度中调节量进行修正的方法。该方法减小负荷及分布式电源的不确定性对微电网系统带来的未知风险,有效提高发用电计划的裕量,降低由于预测偏差带来的缺电或多电损失。通过算例仿真,验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。

The daily ahead economic dispatch of microgrid is an important part of the energy management. Because of the distributed power source and load forecasting error, the dispatch value is often not the best. To decrease the influence of the error, this paper introduced a method to estimate the uncertainty of resources and load, and correct the adjustment amount by minimizing the risk cost. By reducing the uncertain risk brought by the uncertainty of resources and load, the margin of the scheduling could be increased effetely, and the loss of power shortage or overage would be decreased. By simulation analysis, the rationality and validity of the model are proved.